 | 'Only an infinitesimal swing is needed. The Nats need a swing of 9.3% to topple Labour - quite achievable if recent by-elections are a guide, and less than they achieved in Hamilton South, Perth, Monklands East and Paisley South.' Murray Ritchie in the Herald, 13 th January 2000. |  |
As hostilities begin, all of the rival parties are agreed on at least one point: political blood will flow in what is certain to be the most fascinating and closely-fought by-election in Scotland for years.
Should Labour lose, the result will be a wounding humiliation for a party riding high in the polls in England but still haunted by the SNP's near miss last year in Hamilton South.
If the Tories fail to win back their former stronghold they will remain the aunt sallies of Scottish politics, still without a constituency seat in Holyrood or Westminster.
For Labour and Conservatives the nightmare is the SNP coming from third place to victory. But if the Nationalists fail to stage one of their celebrated by-election coups they, too, will be bloodied by a reminder of their long failure to make the breakthrough in Labour seats.
The Tories met last night to select their candidate and will announce their champion this afternoon.
At the same time the Nationalists's by-election team meets under the chairmanship of deputy leader John Swinney, who masterminded the Hamilton campaign, to plot strategy. Their candidates' short leet will be announced on Tuesday.
This is a fight that Labour - whose choice will be known on January 24 - would wish away. A genuine three-horse race, it leaves the party of Government in Scotland defending the smallest majority in the country, only 25 votes.
When Labour's Ian Welsh, a local businessman, announced he was standing down for family reasons as the local MSP after only six months in the job he plunged his party into an unwanted battle.
But the opposition parties are delighted. The SNP thrives on by-elections, and the Tories are also talking up their chances. Conservatives point to the constituency result in the Euro-elections when they were comfortable leaders on an low turnout, with the SNP trailing in third.
Now the Tories look forward to Nationalists and Tommy Sheridan's Scottish Socialists ruining Labour's chances, allowing the Tory a historic win which would be the launchpad for a Conservative revival.
Only an infinitesimal swing is needed. The Nats need a swing of 9.3% to topple Labour - quite achievable if recent by-elections are a guide, and less than they achieved in Hamilton South, Perth, Monklands East and Paisley South.
Only in Kincardine and Deeside did the SNP fail to reach the figure required in Ayr. Besides, say the Nats (and Tories), Mr Welsh did nothing for Labour's cause by quitting after such a short time. Why should Ayr voters put their faith in Labour again?
Mr Swinney points out that when Mr Welsh won in May he had to beat only three rivals including the no-hope Liberal Democrats.
But in March, when the by-election takes place, there will be the usual clutch of smaller parties and, probably, a turnout significantly lower than the 66% who voted in the Scottish parliamentary election.
Another guide to what could happen is the constituency's breakdown of second votes last May when the SNP came closer to catching Labour and the Tories.
While Labour and Tory support in list voting dropped by 6% and 7% respectively, the SNP's jumped by 3%, given them high hopes of a surprise in March.
Labour knows the SNP always talks a great campaign, but hasn't won a by-election in a Labour-held seat for more than a decade. Labour also sees the Tories still bumping along the bottom in Scottish opinion polls, their credibility in England still shot by internal feuding and doing damage north of the Border.
Besides, say Labour and the SNP in chorus, the Tories' Phil Gallie has already effectively conceded defeat for the Conservatives by declining to stand, refusing to risk his Holyrood list seat, and holding out for a return to Westminster.
For many reasons this promises to be a very different Scottish by-election.
Different because for the first time since 1997 the Tories in Scotland are contenders.
Different because Labour will struggle to defend a marginal outside its central belt fiefdom.
Different because the SNP always performs better in Holyrood contests than in their Westminster equivalent.
Different because this will be the first test of whether Scottish electors see any point in voting Lib Dem in these days of coalition politics.
Let battle commence. - Jan 13 2000
Return to home page