Ayr by-election 2000

'Poor David McLetchie. He's such a nice man compared with the hoods and crooks who've brought his party into disrepute. It must be frustrating for him to see his revival in Scotland being eclipsed by events south of the Border. But is the Scottish Tory revival all that real? The Ayr by-election may give us a clue but the fact that Phil Gallie has declared himself a non-runner shows that even he senses the possibility of defeat, and Phil, of course, is renowned for his sensitivity as well as his reticence.' Dennis Canavan MP MSP in the Herald, 10 th January 2000.

Where every Tory silver lining has a cloud

Political editor Douglas Fraser looks at the plight of Conservatives in Scotland in the Sunday Herald

With William Hague holidaying in Montana, the party grandees have taken it in turn to undermine him, at the start of a year in which he has to prepare his party for a general election that it must be dreading.

Senior members of the Scottish party are increasingly frustrated that the problems down south are undermining the boost to morale felt during 1999 in coming from nowhere to having 18 MSPs and two MEPs.

One senior party figure said: "I think our colleagues south of the Border are going to have to get a grip. I don't think they know what they're up to."

Rifkind says: "It is the lot of the opposition to be kicked all over the place. But William Hague has to deal with the problems of perception and he must do that in the tone of speeches, in the composition of the shadow cabinet and to see the impact of what he's doing. He has to make sure the shadow cabinet not only preserves but is seen to preserve the overall balance of the party."

He adds that the centre-right needs reassurance that the "lurch to the right" talked about by John Major and Kenneth Clarke is not for real.

Sir Malcolm Rifkind hopes to return to the Commons by fighting his former Edinburgh Pentland seat. But the party faces a more immediate electoral test when Ayr - its most winnable seat in the Scottish parliament - has a by-election in two months.

Phil Gallie held Ayr in Westminster before a 1997 loss and his subsequent election on the top-up list to Holyrood. But he has announced not only that he intends to ditch the Scottish parliament in favour of regaining the Westminster seat.

It was a double whammy - the party's best by-election prospect standing aside, while signalling that the Edinburgh legislature is merely a stepping stone to a revived career in London.

The Tories' challenge this year is to prepare themselves for a second heavy defeat at Westminster. A row has already broken out over whether they should try for a realistic target of winnable seats - reckoned to be no more than about 60 - on which resources could be focussed, or to follow the strategy of party chairman Michael Ancram in targeting 200 seats in order to make the party look like it seriously intends to beat Labour. And the grassroots have been undermined by the budget-enforced loss of many of the party's full-time local agents.

Scots Tories are keen to push a clear identity through Holyrood. "For an awful long time, it was the Scots who were the Achilles' heel of the Conservative Party in the UK," says a party spokesman. "We're now realising that we're doing not a bad job now in Scotland. We've had a better press for our activities and efforts in Scotland than for a very long time and that is gratifying."

But there is no stomach for an identity that separates them further from their southern cousins. "We are a UK party or we are nothing," stresses Scottish leader David McLetchie.

With a poll rating of 12%, the big test for Westminster may find the Scottish party consigned again to being nothing.

- Jan 9 th 2000