 | 'What is becoming clear, and is confirmed by the coverage of the London mayoral race, is that the UK media is really the LONDON media. Its horizons are very limited. And to the extent that its parochialism alienates people in the regions and nations of Britain it has become a factor in the unbundling of the British isles.' Iain MacWhirter, in the Herald, 29 th December 1999. |  |
Mr Ian Welsh took Ayr in May by only 25 votes after three recounts, piping Conservative Phil Gallie who had held the seat at Westminster until the British General Election.
Mr Welsh cited family reasons for quitting as an MSP after only eight months although it was known around Holyrood that he was frustrated with his new political life.
Mr Gallie, widely seen as the obvious Tory choice, now faces an agonising decision. He can sit tight as a list MSP and let someone else fight the by-election, or he can resign his list seat to have another tilt at the constituency.. Defeat would end his parliamentary career because he would not be allowed simply to resume his list seat.
As the Tories debated tactics, SNP strategists were also plotting how to win from third place. While a minuscule swing to the Tories would let Mr Gallie back into their former stronghold, the SNP would need a 9.3 % swing from Labour to spring a surprise.
A Nationalist spokesman was quick to point out that the Hamilton South swing from Labour to the SNP earlier this year was 22 %. But Ayr is a very different seat and Mr Gallie already enjoys the advantage of a high profile locally.
A Tory spokesman said: 'The party will go through the normal selection process for a candidate. Mr Gallie will have to decide for himself what to do.'
Mr Gallie gave a clue to his ambitions when he said: 'There is nothing I would like better than to be a constituency member for Ayr again. My heart and soul is here.' But party managers appeared to take an ultra-cautious line, pointing out that Mr Gallie was 'ineligible' unless he took a huge risk.
If he does resign from the list, his seat in Holyrood will automatically be offered to Mr Alastair Hutton, a 59-year old former broadcaster, who came fifth on the South of Scotland Tory list in May. Mr Hutton was Tory Euro-MP for the South of Scotland from 1979 until 1989 when he lost his seat to Labour's Alex Smith.
SNP business manager Michael Russell, a South of Scotland MSP, said Mr Welsh's decision was an extremely surprising development and added: 'Obviously, any by-election will be extremely hard-fought, and the SNP as the official Opposition will contest Ayr to win. On recent swings in Scottish politics - such as in Hamilton South and local authority by-elections - the SNP are in the running in Ayr, requiring a swing of just over 9 %. There is everything to play for, and the SNP will be campaigning to win.'
Mr Welsh is a 46-year old former teacher and chief executive of Kilmarnock FC, the premier league team. He was leader of South Ayrshire Council from 1995 until May. He has a handicapped son and has complained about the daily travel to Edinburgh being harder than he had expected.
'Although the family-friendly nature of the Scottish Parliament is very welcome, it is still putting burdens on my family,' he said. 'After so many years of active politics, I need to develop more time to my family.'
He added: 'This decision has been taken after considerable heart searching and extended family debate. I have been involved in politics and the Labour Party since adolescence. Since the election, I have, as ever, assiduously pursued constituency work but I have found it very difficult to adjust to a back bench role at Holyrood.'
But Opposition critics said Mr Welsh must have known exactly what lay ahead of him when he decided to become an MSP. As a successful businessman and former party heavyweight in Ayr he is reportedly weary of having to obey party discipline in Edinburgh.
Presiding Officer Sir David Steel will decide the date of the by-election which must be held within three months.
21 st December 1999
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