Candidates and Constituency Assessments

'Who is old enough to remember the disgraceful tactics employed when Donald Dewar said of his SNP/CND opponent, that if he were elected the area would lose Stephen's shipyard and Barr and Stroud's engineering works contacts to the English MOD and that we would also lose; Singers, United Biscuits, Albion Motors, Barclay Curle and others too numerous to recall. Donald Dewar was duly elected and we lost Stephens, Barr and Stroud, Singers, United Biscuits, Albion, Barclay Curle and more, much more.' Donald Anderson, from a letter to the Herald,, November 2000.

Glasgow Anniesland (Glasgow Region)

From Garscadden in 1978 to Annieland in 2000

'It's a funny old world' remarked Margaret Thatcher with tears in her eyes. The date was the 22 nd of November 1990 and she had been forced into retirement after more than 11 years as Prime Minister.

Almost exactly ten years later, on the 23 rd November 2000, voters will be going to the polls in a unique double by-election for the Glasgow Anniesland following the death of First Minister Donald Dewar who held both the Westminster and Scottish parliamentary seats.

Some Anniesland voters with long memories might also be reflecting that it is a 'funny old world'. The last time there was a by-election in Anniesland was in April 1978 when the seat was known as Glasgow Garscadden. The SNP had been on the advance since Winnie Ewing's by-election victory in Hamilton in 1967. In the October 1974 general election, the SNP obtained over 30 % of the vote in Scotland and were less than 6 % behind Labour. Jim Callaghan's Labour government was in deep trouble and needed to retain Garscadden to remain in government, while the SNP needed to win the seat in order to keep the pressure on Labour in order to deliver a Scottish Assembly.

In the event, Garscadden was held for Labour by Donald Dewar despite a swing of 3.6 % to the SNP. Six weeks later, in another by-election, George Robertson held on to Hamilton despite the presence of the formidable Margo MacDonald as the SNP candidate. This time there was a swing of 4.5 % from the SNP to Labour and the pressure for the Callaghan government to concede Home Rule for Scotland appeared to be receding. That was confirmed a few months later in October when John Home Robertson unexpectedly held on to Berwick & East Lothian for Labour. After one of the most disastrous by-election campaigns in the SNP's history, Isobel Lindsay, imposed by SNP HQ upon the constituency, lost her deposit. Callaghan believed, quite rightly, that the SNP threat was over and that there was no longer any need to grant Scotland its assembly. When Scots voted 'Yes' the Labour government sided with its own rebels, imposed the notorious Cunninghame '40 %' rule and refused to deliver for Scotland.

In 1970, the Labour delegation to the Kilbrandon commission had stated 'We would rather see a Tory government in London than a Labour government in Edinburgh.' The Scottish Labour party obtained what it had asked for. Margaret Thatcher won the 1979 general election despite being rejected by almost 70 % of Scottish voters. The SNP had been reduced to just two seats and no longer posed a threat. Thatcher's series of anti-Scottish measures began by her repealing of the Scotland Act and ended with her imposition of her flagship policy, the Poll Tax in Scotland a year before England. Labour held the vast majority of Scottish seats but were powerless, not because of the enormous Tory majority in the rest of the United Kingdom, but because they believed that the Union was more important than the settled will of the Scottish people. Scotland entered a political Dark Age which was to last for 18 long years.

Throughout many of the dark days of Thatcherism, it was Donald Dewar, as Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland, who held the impotent and demoralised Scottish Labour Party together. When Labour won the 1997 general election, he replaced the discredited George Robertson as Secretary of State for Scotland and became Scotland's first First Minister two years later. Ironically, had Labour actually lost the Glasgow Garscadden and Hamilton by-elections, Labour might have actually been delivered a Scottish Assembly which could have been celebrating its 21 st and not first birthday in the year 2000.

Donald Dewar and George Robertson won Glasgow Garscadden and Hamilton within six weeks in 1978 and exited from Scottish politics within 13 months of each other. There is even more irony when it is considered that the third Labour by-election victor from 1978, John Home Robertson, has recently been sacked as Fisheries Minister in Henry McLeish's Executive reshuffle.

Normally, Labour should hold seats like Anniesland, where they have majorities of 15,154 for Westminster and 10,993 for the Mound, without too much difficulty. However, as in 1978, Labour is fighting for survival. In 1978, the unpopular Callaghan government had a waver thin majority and relied on the support of the David Steel's Liberals to keep them in office, just as the present unpopular Scottish Executive is kept in power by Jim Wallace's Liberal Democrats.

However, other factors are different. In 1978, the Scottish National Party had peaked and were beginning to decline. In 1999, nobody rated the SNP's chances in the Hamilton South Westminster by-election yet they sent political shock waves throughout Scotland when Annabelle Ewing reduced Labour's majority from 15,878 to just 556. The swing from Labour to the SNP was 22.6 %. In the Anniesland Westminster seat, the SNP would require a swing of 22.4 % and for the Holyrood seat they need 19.3 %.

Political history

Glasgow Anniesland is the successor to the Glasgow Garscadden seat which was created in 1974 and it was little affected by the 1983 boundary changes. In 1997, the seat was enlarged - to the Garscadden core of Drumchapel, Knightswood, and Yoker were added the wards of Kelvindale, Kelvinside, Jordanhill and Anniesland itself from upmarket Hillhead. Following local government boundary changes, Anniesland now contains the Glasgow Council wards of Drumry, Summerhill, Blairdardie, Knightswood Park, Knightswood South, Yoker, Kelvindale, Jordanhill and Anniesland itself.

Glasgow Garscadden has been held by Labour since its creation for the February 1974 general election. The late Donald Dewar, held the seat for Labour in the crucial 1978 by-election with a reduced majority of 4,552, down from 7,637 in October 1974. The SNP candidate was Keith Bovey, who had contested the seat at the two 1974 general elections when he had increased the SNP vote from fourth place with 11.3 % in February to second with 31.2 % in October. In the by-election, Iain Lawson, who subsequently joined the SNP, increased the Conservative vote by 5.6 %.

Donald Dewar's election in Garscadden was an important morale booster for the entrenched Callaghan government. It also marked the beginning of the end of the SNP challenge of the 1970s and a concomitant decline in the fortunes of the Home Rule movement which had been running largely on SNP petrol. Indeed it is strange to note that it was the election of Labour's candidate for first minister that heralded the end of Scotland's chance of self government and 18 years of Tory rule.

Since 1978, Glasgow Garscadden has become one of Labour's safest seats. In the 1979 general election which saw the Tories sweep to power in England, Donald Dewar held the seat with a majority of 15,198 over Conservative Iain Lawson, while the SNP's Jim Bain fell back to third place with 15.7 %

In 1983, Donald Dewar's majority was reduced slightly to 13,474 and for the third time in a row, there was a new runner-up as the Social Democrats, contesting the seat for the first time since 1974, took second place with 17.6 %.

In 1987 Donald Dewar obtained a massive 18,977 (55.5%) majority over the SNP's Alex Brophy who regained second place for the party. Donald Dewar's vote at 67.7 %, marked the high water line for Labour in Glasgow Garscadden. Although Labour made major advances in Scotland, they were not matched south of the border and Mrs Thatcher remained in power.

In 1992, Donald Dewar was challenged by Dick Douglas, previously Labour MP for Dunfermline West before he resigned the Labour whip and joined the SNP in protest over Labour's ineffective poll tax stance. Despite a 5.0 % swing to the SNP, Mr Dewar was elected once more with a13,340 (45 %) majority.

In 1997, Donald Dewar held the new seat of Anniesland with a 15,154 majority over the SNP's Dr Bill Wilson. Donald Dewar took 61.8 % of the vote, down from 64.4 % in 1992. This, at first sight, appeared to be stagnation compared to massive swings elsewhere to Labour. However, the boundary changes which increased the size of the constituency added a section of the old Hillhead seat. Compared to the notional 1992 results, Labour were up by 8.7 %, the SNP by 0.1 %, while the Tories were down by 4.2 % and the Lib Dems down by 6.5 %.

In the 1999 Scottish Parliamentary elections, Donald Dewar, by then Secretary of State for Scotland, also contested the Anniesland seat. The swing from Labour to the SNP (massive in some constituencies like Dundee West and Aberdeen North) tended to be much less in seats defended by a sitting MP, and Anniesland was no exception. The swing from Labour to the SNP was 3.1 % and Donald Dewar was elected with a majority of 10,993 over the SNP's Kaukab Stewart. In third place was Tory Councillor Bill Aitken, who became a Glasgow list MP - the first Tory parliamentarian in Glasgow since the death of Tam Galbraith (Hillhead) in 1982.

In the regional lists, Labour's vote was down by 11.5 % in Anniesland, and the SNP took four of the seven Glasgow list seats, with Nicola Sturgeon, Dorothy Grace Elder, Cllr Kenneth Gibson and Cllr Sandra White being elected. The remaining three seats were won by Tommy Sheridan for the Scottish Socialist party, Cllr Bill Aitken for the Tories and Robert Brown for the Liberal Democrats.

The 1999 European elections saw Labour's worst performance in Scotland since 1918 with the narrowest the gap between them and the SNP ever in a nation-wide election. In Glasgow Anniesland, the Labour obtained 38.2 % of the vote, down by no less than 23.6 % on their 1997 Westminster election result. The SNP maintained second place with 21.2 %. The Tories were third, with the Scottish Socialist Party pushing the Liberal Democrats (who had come second here in 1983) into fifth place ahead of the Greens.

It is interesting to note than in the last Westminster by-election in Hamilton South, the Labour vote fell by 9.4 % on even its disastrous Euro-election vote, while the SNP vote was up by 10.6 %. A similar performance in Anniesland would see the Labour lose not only the Scottish, but also the Westminster seat to the Scottish National party.

Donald Dewar

Mr Dewar entered parliament for the first time in 1966 when he won Aberdeen South from the Tories . However, in 1970 he was ousted by Conservative right-winger, Ian Sproat. Surprisingly, Dewar did not return to politics until eight years later when he held the then marginal seat of Glasgow Garscadden for Labour despite a swing to the Scottish National Party. Upon the retirement of Bruce Milan in 1988, Donald Dewar became Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland. His promotion to Shadow Social Security Minister and subsequently to Labour Chief Whip left a void in Scotland which his successors found impossible to fill. After the 1997 election Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland, George Robertson was extremely displeased when he was given the Defence portfolio with Scotland put in the much more capable hands of Donald Dewar. Tony Blair for once made an excellent decision, perhaps having learned from Labour's disastrous efforts in the 1970s. George Robertson was seen as too much of a Yes Man and London puppet with no real commitment to a Scottish Parliament. Indeed, it was extremely telling that, despite several assurances that he would be 'honoured to serve', Robertson did not in fact stand for the Scottish Parliament. It is unlikely that George Robertson would have been able to push through the Scotland Bill in the face of opposition from the centralists like Straw. For that alone, Donald Dewar deserved the title of 'Father of the Parliament'.

As Secretary of State for Scotland, Donald Dewar was Labour's biggest asset in Scotland, well liked if not respected where his deputy Helen Liddell was respected but not liked. Dewar appeared about to be canonised after delivering a massive Yes Yes vote in the 1997 vote with the help of the Scottish National Party and Liberal Democrats. Since then Donald's halo was tarnished once or twice, with serious gaffes concerning his decision to spite Edinburgh and the SNP by siting the parliament at Holyrood rather than Calton Hill and his vetoing of the knighthood for SNP supporter Sean Connery. Perhaps ashamed at having constantly criticised Donald Dewar throughout his tenure as First Minister, upon his death the press reaction was a hysteria which had not been seen since the death of Diana Princess of Wales. Donald Dewar was proclaimed 'Father of the Nation' a title which he would have undoubtedly have disapproved of. Instead, Dewar was the Father of the Parliament. Donald Dewar's tragic death leaves an enormous vacuum in the Scottish Labour party which has nobody approaching his stature.

The only doubt in Glasgow Anniesland in 1997 was over the size of Donald Dewar's majority. However, in the summer of 1998 all that changed with the SNP at their peak and a regional analysis of the System 3 poll revealing that even Glasgow Anniesland was at risk to the SNP. Labour have again overtaken the SNP in the polls but the fact that Scotland's Party's opinion poll ratings are so volatile means that even Labour's Westminster candidate would be unwise to make any firm plans until the votes are in and counted.