 | 'It appears that the Donald Dewar sympathy vote was slightly stronger than we anticipated. It was also disappointing that New Labour's tactics of not allowing their candidates to be subjected to public and media scrutiny appears to have been effective.' Tom Chalmers, 23 rd November 2000. |  |
The Nationalists knew that a swing of over 20% was necessary to achieve what would have been a spectacular success. The record low turnout meant that was never going to happen, and the SNP had to settle for a 6-7% swing and distant second places. Nationalist strategists had calculated correctly that a turnout nearing 40% would be too much to cause an upset.
On a 41% poll, they had achieved a swing in Hamilton South of 22.6% which brought a recount at that Westminster by-election, caused by George Robertson's elevation to the Lords to become secretary general of Nato. That would have been just enough to seize the Anniesland seats. In the more recent Ayr by-election, the swing from Labour to the SNP was just under 13% but the victorious Tories were the major factor in that poll.
SNP John Swinney emphasised that the reason his party had been unable to match the swing of 22.6% it achieved in Hamilton South was down to the different circumstances. One saw the elevation to the peerage of a sitting MP, while the other involved the death of a much-loved figure.
The SNP's Holyrood candidate Tom Chalmers said last night: "A 6%-7% swing in a by-election held in difficult circumstances still means we would take about two dozen seats at the next Scottish Parliament elections.
"It appears that the Donald Dewar sympathy vote was slightly stronger than we anticipated. It was also disappointing that New Labour's tactics of not allowing their candidates to be subjected to public and media scrutiny appears to have been effective."
Elsewhere, the reaction was predictably mixed. Labour's Holyrood victor, Bill Butler, said last night: "I speak for everyone here when I saw this was a by-election no-one wanted," referring to the death of Donald Dewar. "I consider it a huge honour to follow in his footsteps and will do all I can to fight for what he believed in."
In the Westminster Parliament poll, Labour's majority was higher than for Holyrood. Winning Labour candidate John Robertson delivered a similar victory message, saying: "I can never be Donald Dewar. I can only be John Robertson, but I promise I will represent all of the the people of Anniesland, regardless of how they voted."
The SNP's Westminster candidate Grant Thoms mocked his Labour opponent, saying: "This is the first time I have heard Mr Robertson speak." He claimed the SNP was growing in the constituency and going from strength to strength. On issues such as the privatisation of air traffic control and on pensions, he said: "The people of Anniesland felt the SNP had struck a chord with them and Labour would have to stop taking them for granted."
The Tory candidate for Holyrood, Dr Kate Pickering, said: "The Conservative Party is alive and kicking in Glasgow Anniesland. We are the party to deliver real social justice to the people of Glasgow, not the fake variety delivered by Labour. We have had a good campaign and team morale is high. We are now ready to build and move on."
Scottish Conservative MSP Phil Gallie said: "Wherever you went around the doorsteps there was this Donald Dewar factor. The respect was there. I believe that to a degree there was loyalty that the Labour picked up in this election which perhaps will not be there when it come to other by-elections."
Having pushed the Liberal Democrats into fifth place in the Holyrood poll and retained its deposits, the Scottish Socialist Party was delighted by its performance last night. Holyrood candidate Rosie Kane said: "Watch this space. The time is up for Labour. We are now on the ladder on the way up and Labour are on the slippery slope on the way down."
Tommy Sheridan, SSP leader, commenting on his party's increased vote, said: "We are very pleased - 4% at Holyrood, 6% Westminster. We are the new kids on the block who are going to make an impact on Scottish politics. This sets us up for Falkirk. And it will set us up for the May general election. And I think when Holyrood comes round, I think you will be looking at a significant new force in Scottish politics."
Michael Moore, Liberal Democrat spokesman, said: "The reality is this has been a pretty solid performance by the Labour Party. They have won both seats comfortably. None of the rest of the parties are going to take very great comfort from this."
-Nov 24th
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