Glasgow Anniesland By-elections 2000

'Mr Dewar's 15,154 majority at the last Westminster election may well be reduced by the Scottish Nationalist Party, but LabourÕs candidate John Robertson is likely to escape the hammering the party suffered in Hamilton South earlier this year. LabourÕs Bill Tynan saw the partyÕs majority slashed from 16,000 to just 556.'
Jenny Percival in the Scotsman 22 ndSeptember 2000.

Super Thursday puts Labour to the test

By Jenny Percival Political Correspondent in the Scotsman 22 nd November 2000

VOTERS go to the polls tomorrow in three by-elections which will test the ground for a general election in spring 2001.

In what has been dubbed "Super Thursday", electors in Glasgow Anniesland, Preston and West Bromwich West will deliver their verdict on the governmentÕs performance.

Labour strategists will pore over the results, the first since Labour's troubles over the high price of fuel and the now notorious 75p increase in the state pension.

Tony Blair's conference speech in the autumn helped to turn the tide and the opinion polls showed that Labour had regained its lead over the Tories, albeit at a more realistic level.

Party officials are hoping that Chancellor Gordon Brown's pledges of pension increases and cuts in fuel duty, will have persuaded the disgruntled farmers, hauliers and pensioners to return to the fold.

A greater problem for Labour will be apathy among its supporters. The by-elections, caused by the deaths of Donald Dewar and Audrey Wise, and resignation of Speaker Betty Boothroyd, are in rock-solid Labour seats.

Mr Dewar's 15,154 majority at the last Westminster election may well be reduced by the Scottish Nationalist Party, but LabourÕs candidate John Robertson is likely to escape the hammering the party suffered in Hamilton South earlier this year. LabourÕs Bill Tynan saw the partyÕs majority slashed from 16,000 to just 556.

With Mr Dewar's Holyrood seat also up for grabs, the SNP will hope to capitalise on polling evidence which suggests that voters are less likely to support Labour in a Scottish parliamentary election. LabourÕs Bill Butler is the man who hopes to prove them wrong.

In West Bromwich West, the by-election represents the first test of Labour support since 1992, because the Speaker is usually allowed to stand for re-election unopposed. In 1992, Labour had a majority of 7,830 but boundary changes have cut that figure to around 6,000.

Although it still looks like a safe seat, the West Midlands constituency is causing Labour its biggest headache.

Almost half the workforce are employed in hard-hit manufacturing industries, many in the Rover plant at Longbridge.

Like Mr Dewar, Miss Boothroyd was a popular local figure with a strong personal vote. Labour's candidate in West Bromwich West, Adrian Bailey, the 54-year-old deputy leader of the local council, is frequently accused of having had a personality by-pass. The Birmingham Post described him as being as "inspiring as a vandalised bus shelter on Sedgley Road West".

Tory candidate Karen Bissell, a 35-year-old legal executive, is Mr BaileyÕs main challenger. The constituencyÕs large Asian population has attracted the attention of the British National Party, which is fielding its chairman, Nick Griffen.

In Preston, veteran left-winger Mrs Wise also attracted a sizeable personal following. Her daughter Valerie, a former member of the Greater London Council, hoped to capitalise on this when she tried to become LabourÕs candidate but she was beaten by Mark Hendrick, who lost his seat as Euro MP for the area in last yearÕs European elections.

Mr Hendrick's victory caused a bitter row within the party but it is unlikely to affect his chances of becoming PrestonÕs new MP. Mrs WiseÕs majority of 18,650 at the last election may be whittled down by Labour voters who cannot be bothered to vote but it would a shock of epic proportions were he not to be on his way to Westminster on Friday.

By-elections are notoriously unpredictable. Labour will be approaching tomorrow's polls with some caution. And Mr Blair and his strategists will be scrutinising the result to determine whether to go for a spring election.

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