 | 'Donald Dewar's constituency of Glasgow Anniesland should be a sure thing for Labour: people there will be in mourning for their MP and MSP and it's supposedly a safe seat. But voters do funny things and an emotionally charged electorate is not always one that will do the expected - as the Tories found out in the Romsey by-election last year that followed from the death of Michael Colvin MP, who died along with his wife in a house fire.' BBC News 13 th October 2000. |  |
Mr Dewar represented Glasgow Anniesland as an MP and MSP so Labour Party managers are now facing the prospect of defending no less than five seats.
If the pundits are to be believed, the next general election could be in May 2001 and if that is the case Labour will have to manage its series of by-elections carefully.
Two of the contests have been sparked by deaths - Mr Dewar's and that of the veteran Labour left-winger Audrey Wise, who held the Preston constituency with a majority of 18,680 over the Tories in 1997.
The two other traditionally Labour seats up for grabs are the West Bromwich West seat of Commons' Speaker Betty Boothroyd, who is retiring, and Falkirk West where rebel ex-Labour MP Dennis Canavan has stood down to concentrate on his other job as an MSP.
The outcome in Bromwich is complicated by the fact that a Speaker stands as a representative of that office, not the party for which he or she was originally elected.
In addition, the main parties do not usually contest the Speaker's seat, though in 1997 Miss Boothroyd won with a majority of 15,423 against two minor parties.
Looking at the 1992 result - and adjusting for boundary changes effective from 1997 - Labour was thought to have a majority of just over 6,000.
Labour chiefs will be conscious that any results will be carefully scrutinised ahead of a general election and it may be that they will bear in mind the result of another by-election at the beginning of 1997.
By-election preceded Labour's landslide
In February of that year, just three months ahead of the general election, Labour won a normally safe Tory seat in the Wirral South by-election and in May they won a landslide general election.
Donald Dewar's constituency of Glasgow Anniesland should be a sure thing for Labour: people there will be in mourning for their MP and MSP and it's supposedly a safe seat.
But voters do funny things and an emotionally charged electorate is not always one that will do the expected - as the Tories found out in the Romsey by-election last year that followed from the death of Michael Colvin MP, who died along with his wife in a house fire.
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