Glasgow Anniesland By-elections 2000

'No-one wanted by-elections in Anniesland in these circumstances but it is a pity that Labour was unable to select candidates of a higher calibre and profile to replace Mr Dewar at Westminster and Holyrood (voters willing).'
Herald Editorial, 15 th November 2000.

The parties must wake up to Anniesland challenge

A dumbed-down by-election

Herald Editorial, 15 th November 2000

A highly unusual event in modern Scottish politics takes place in Glasgow next week when the electorate goes to the polls in Anniesland to vote in two by-elections on the same day. Or do not. The untimely death of Donald Dewar has caused the conjunction of a set of political circumstances - simultaneous ballots for the constituency's Westminster and Scottish Parliament seats - that is unlikely to be repeated. Cause, then, for lively by-election campaigns captivating constituents already primed to turn out by the opportunity to pass judgment on both the UK and Scottish Governments.

There are big issues at stake. The by-elections should be an early test of the Chancellor's package of measures to help pensioners and reduce the tax burden on motorists. The Scottish Executive's controversial plans in conjunction with Glasgow City Council to transfer housing stock to housing associations - aimed at removing the smothering debt that holds back essential refurbishment - should also activate voters. Anniesland is a socially mixed constituency yet nearly 50% of housing is council-owned. Although the ballot on stock transfer is some way off (and might well be further delayed), there should be enough there to excite a significant proportion of the electorate. Not so. Anniesland is the constituency of the silent campaign. There is a two-horse race for both seats, between Labour and the SNP. Recent by-election campaigns confirm that Labour favours the low-key approach. It held sway in the Paisley South and Hamilton South Westminster by-elections. Party strategists will argue that keeping the candidate away from controversial issues, and avoiding them totally if possible, works because Labour held on to both seats.

But the party's majority in both cases was greatly reduced. Blandness came at a price as the Nationalists' credibility was boosted, however fleetingly, by the major gains made at Labour's expense. The Ayr Scottish Parliament by-election - won by the Tories - was a much live-lier affair. The turnout (57%) was higher than in Paisley South and Hamilton South (an average of 42%) but still worryingly low in a constituency where voters have historically gone enthusiastically to the polls. The great risk in running a dull campaign, as Labour seems intent on doing in Anniesland, is that it creates voter apathy which, nationally, is already a cause of concern. Labour traditionally suffers most from a poor turnout at by-elections. No-one wanted by-elections in Anniesland in these circumstances but it is a pity that Labour was unable to select candidates of a higher calibre and profile to replace Mr Dewar at Westminster and Holyrood (voters willing). Low-key candidates lead to low-key elections.

Recent by-election trends allied to the results of our most recent System Three opinion polls suggest that it would not require much from the Nationalists to grab at least one of the seats (probably the Scottish Parliament one). Although the SNP has also run a dull campaign in Anniesland by its own standards, Labour will need to wake up to the Nationalists if it wants to avoid a hugely damaging defeat or two. Hiding from issues that need to be confronted (far less refusing publicly to debate them with their opponents) is hardly the best (or most open) way to fight by-election campaigns. The by-elections will be an early test of the credibility of First Minister Henry McLeish's advocacy of policies that matter to ordinary people. That commitment must already be questioned when debate on the bread-and-butter issues that matter in Anniesland is deliberately constrained.

-Nov 15th

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