Glasgow Anniesland By-elections 2000

'Labour's vote is vulnerable to an SNP challenge as the Anniesland constituency breakdown for last year's European elections showed. Labour's share was down over 23 percentage points on 1997 to a little over 38% of the vote. Labour cannot also rely on the memory of Donald Dewar for comfort. We need only look back to the 1994 Monklands East by-election in the wake of the death of John Smith. There, the SNP achieved a swing of more than 19% and slashed Labour's majority from around 15,000 to 1500.' Malcolm Dickson in the Herald, 15 th November 2000.

Banana skin awaits Labour

By Malcolm Dickson in the Herald 15 th November 2000

Whatever the outcome, it is likely that the by-elections in the year 2000 will be remembered for that. For the SNP, the hope will be that they are remembered for considerably more than that.

Yet on the face of it, the SNP would seem to have a mountain to climb. The Glasgow Anniesland constituency and its predecessor Glasgow Garscadden have seen substantial Labour majorities returned time and again in recent political history. In General Elections back to 1974 Labour has never polled less than 50% of the vote.

Even when Donald Dewar took the Garscadden seat for the first time in a by-election in March 1978, Labour was a full 12.5 percentage points ahead of the SNP.

There has also been considerable fluctuation in the second place challenges in this seat with the Conservatives second in 1979 and the Social Democrats in 1983.

Only in 1987 did the SNP establish themselves as Labour's consistent nearest rivals. Since then, every election contested has seen the SNP closest to Labour.

To take the Westminster seat next week the SNP need a swing of 22.4% and in the Holyrood seat a swing of 19.3%. Labour's current lead in The Herald's System Three poll for Westminster voting intentions is very similar to before last year's Hamilton South by- election when the SNP almost pulled off a remarkable victory with a 22.6% swing. Generally, the SNP are performing better in the Scottish Parliament voting intentions than in the same period last year.

Labour's vote is vulnerable to an SNP challenge as the Anniesland constituency breakdown for last year's European elections showed. Labour's share was down over 23 percentage points on 1997 to a little over 38% of the vote.

Labour cannot also rely on the memory of Donald Dewar for comfort. We need only look back to the 1994 Monklands East by-election in the wake of the death of John Smith. There, the SNP achieved a swing of more than 19% and slashed Labour's majority from around 15,000 to 1500.

All this adds up to a potential banana skin for Labour next week.

* Malcolm Dickson is a lecturer in politics at Strathclyde University.

-Nov 15th