 | 'If MPs had put their constituents first, and challenged the Prime Minister and the Chancellor, who rely on MPs' support as much MPs depend on their patronage, oil supplies might be flowing freely this morning in Britain.' Catherine MacLeod in the Herald, 14 th September 2000. |  |
For Labour, it was a traumatic month. If the loss of its Scottish leader was not enough, the then enforced necessity to find a swift replacement was as difficult a time as the party has faced in recent years.
It has done so without major problems, with Henry McLeish now facing the unenviable task of trying to fill the void left by Donald Dewar.
Politically, it is an awkward time for Mr McLeish. His party has been under pressure in the polls in Scotland from the SNP in the last six months, and the two by-elections in Anniesland are less than three weeks away.
Labour can gain considerable comfort from the fact that our latest System Three poll shows that last month's dramatic surge by the SNP was simply a reflection of Scottish discontent about the fuel tax issue, rather than a seismic shift towards the Nationalists.
Our poll would put Labour only one seat down on its May 1999 position, with a projected 55 seats in the Scottish Parliament. The SNP would continue its strong run of poll showings, with a projected 40 seats, despite the drop on last month.
The Liberal Democrats are continuing to show some modest increase in their fortunes. The longer term trend for the Conservatives tends to show no sustained increase in the wake of their March by-election success in Ayr and, indeed, there are now showing worrying signs of slipping back again.
The poll fluctuations over the past three months do need to be explained in a little more detail. On the face of it, it seems odd that the SNP was able to achieve an 8.5% swing in one month for Westminster between September and October, and have that followed by a swing back to Labour of 10.5%.
Yet if we look at UK opinion polls, we see a very similar pattern of change in support between Labour and its main UK rival, the Conservatives.
In the same period as the SNP was achieving a large swing, the Tories produced a 10% swing in the monthly Mori survey. A month later, Labour produced a 5.5% swing back.
Quite simply, the fuel crisis produced one of the sharpest short-term fluctuations in public opinion seen for many years, but it also showed that, in Scotland, it is the SNP which is likely to benefit, even if the issue is a UK one.
With less than three weeks to go, it makes sense to look at the prospects for the main parties in the upcoming by-elections in Anniesland.
On the face of it, Anniesland, would seem like a safe prospect for Labour, both in a Holyrood and Scottish Parliament context. In 1997, Donald Dewar took 62% of the vote for Labour, with the SNP trailing badly on 17%. It was not much different in 1999 for the Scottish Parliament, with Labour on 59% and the SNP on 20%.
Yet in September 1999 at Hamilton South, a solid Labour seat, the SNP almost achieved an unthinkable result with a massive 22.5% swing against Labour.
It is also the case that a lower swing, of just over 19%, is needed to take the Holyrood seat. It is still a tall order but, as in recent by-elections, the SNP may produce a shock.
There are trying times ahead for Labour, with a potential reopening of the fuel crisis issue looming large, as well as difficult by-elections. November may still prove to be as difficult a month as October.
* Malcolm Dickson is lecturer in politics at Strathclyde University
- Nov 6
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