Glasgow Anniesland By-elections 2000

'Henry McLeish, the Enterprise Minister, would be the 'safe pair of hands', but Dewar is thought not to rate him as a First Minister..' Iain MacWhirter in the Herald 16 th August 2000.

Who could fill the Big Man's shoes?

By Iain MacWhirter in the Herald

According to weekend press reports, such a job advert could shortly be pinned to notice boards in Westminster. Donald Dewar, we are told, is dismal about the lack of an obvious successor, and "friends" are canvassing the idea of recruiting someone from the ranks of Scottish MPs to take over when the Big Man goes.

Now it has to be said that this search for a replacement for Mr Dewar is just a tad premature. The First Minister has, after all, only been back for 48 hours. I caught up with him at the Usher Hall on Sunday night and he seemed fine. A little tired looking and dishevelled but he's always looked like that. Mr Dewar seemed eager to get back to the fray and was fascinated to learn the latest theories about why Alex Salmond - the only Scottish politician he needed to worry about - had decided to commit hara kiri in his absence.

But the assumption among the political and chattering classes is that Mr Dewar will not be hanging on in Bute House much after the General Election, and that means a leadership contest starting, more or less now. The problem, however, is that there aren't any contenders - at least no credible ones. The Health Minister, Susan Deacon, and the Finance Minister, Jack McConnell, are presumed to be front runners in this virtual race. But, able though both may be in their own ways, neither is ready to take over the onerous responsibilities of national leadership. They also fell out over the "carry-over" in the health budget, which hasn't helped.

The Communities Minister, Wendy Alexander, is assumed to be Donald Dewar's personal choice, but she has yet to recover from the mauling she received over the Section 28 affair. Sam Galbraith, was never a contender and neither was Sarah Boyack. Henry McLeish, the Enterprise Minister, would be the "safe pair of hands", but Dewar is thought not to rate him as a First Minister. Hence the speculation that someone might be parachuted in from Westminster.

The front runner - if there is one - among the non-Hollyrood candidates is the Foreign Secretary, Robin Cook. The Livingstone MP has always taken a close interest in devolution and there was speculation last year that the Labour MSP, Bristow Muldoon, intended to stand down to allow Cook a safe route into the Scottish Parliament but this was quickly scotched by Mr Muldoon, who didn't seem in much of a mind to lay down his seat.

Getting into the Scottish Parliament isn't as easy as it sounds. And once there, there's the small matter of being elected leader of the Scottish Labour Party. Now, cynics might say that the Scottish Labour Party, what's left of it, will do what it's told. But that isn't necessarily the case. With much of the active membership disillusioned or departed - as the Scottish Treasurer, Bob Thompson, admitted earlier this month - the active ingredient in Scottish Labour politics right now is largely the elected councillors, MPs, MSPs, their staff and party officials.

Robin Cook is a firm advocate of electoral reform and proportional representation. Labour councillors are not and they might demand assurances from Cook on the Kerley Report on local government elections that he simply couldn't provide. The Scottish Secretary, John Reid, has also been mentioned as a possible First Minister, but he would be a gift to the SNP and ignite suspicion that Labour intended to 'close down' the Scottish Parliament by imposing No. 10's choice. In fact, nothing could be further from the truth. The days are gone when Millbank tried to fix the leadership of devolved assemblies. After the Alun Michael fiasco and the Ken Livingstone debacle, Tony Blair and his minders are keen to avoid any hint of interference in devolved affairs. But the reality is that there is nothing for them to interfere in.

How has this happened? Where have all the potential leaders gone? Labour Home Rulers blame the method by which Labour candidates for the Scottish Parliament were chosen. Certainly, many able candidates were frozen out by the kangaroo courts that did the selection - John West in reverse. But even if all the able Labour candidates had been allowed through, and had been elected, it is still unlikely that any of them would be better placed to take over.

Leadership matters, and not anyone can do it. It requires a degree of public recognition and trust that can only be acquired over years of front-line public service. Just look at how issues like the Higher Still fiasco can start to run out of control when no one is quite sure who is in charge. It took Donald Dewar's personal backing for his beleaguered Education Minister, Sam Galbraith, to calm the feeding frenzy and pressure for his resignation.

We need to know where the buck stops. So long as Donald Dewar remains in post, of course, it stops with him. If anyone was ever in any doubt about the quality of his leadership, they should just consider life without him. But there is the man's health to consider. He should not feel that he is under pressure to continue in office longer than he feels able to, simply because there is no one to take over. There is no more pressing issue in Scottish politics. It is up to the Labour Party, at all levels, to identify a successor and try to groom them for office now. The alternative could be instability and open Cabinet warfare.

This is the real irony of devolution: here is a Scottish Parliament, little more than a year old, won back after a century of home rule agitation, yet there seems to be no one fit or eager to lead it after the present incumbent decides to call it a day. There isn't even a credible Opposition politician who could fill Dewar's shoes now that Alex Salmond has left the stage.

Perhaps someone should ring Mel Gibson.

* Don't miss Iain Macwhirter's column every weekend in the Sunday Herald.

-Aug 16